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| Thursday, January 28, 2010 |
| Aircel - VAS + PAN India Rollout - Top Priorities |
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Aircel management has told us that it is focused on value-added services and completing pan-India rollout with a target of 100m subscribers by 2012. Management expects tariff pressure to continue for 6-9 months before stabilising; consolidation unlikely until mid-2011.
Aircel plans to expand to 100m subscribers by 2012 (currently 31m). The benefit of the recent tower sale - immediate cash inflow of USD1.8bn; provides them access to an incremental 20,000 towers, which results in capex savings of USD1bn. The tower transaction allows the company to complete a pan-India rollout and expand operations in existing markets. Aircel plans to increase base station deployment from 38,000 now to 80,000 and achieve population coverage of 70% (80-90% revenue clusters) in the medium term.
Aircel's Views on Indian Telecom Tariff War - current low pricing levels are not sustainable. However, the expected launch by new players could result in further downward pressure over the next 6-9 months. |
Published on Thursday, January 28, 2010 at 2:08 PM  |
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| Tuesday, January 05, 2010 |
| Trend reversal in Wireless MoU |
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We forecast wireless revenues for GSM incumbents (Bharti/Idea) to grow 1-3%qoq aided by strong traffic growth though rev/min decline will be sharp at 3-4p. The encouraging traffic trend is also likely to limit EBITDA margin pressures which mean overall EBITDA to remain flat. Slight appreciation in Rupee will support performance at the PAT level.
Overall traffic should grow 6-12% QoQ resulting in slight improvement in MoU per sub. This is due to a combination of 1) base effect given seasonally weak 2Q, 2) sharp tariff cut would have helped incumbents gain back some mins from competition and (iii) some inherent elasticity.
We estimate rev/min for pure GSM operators to fall 3-4p. Decline for Idea could be more vs. Bharti given aggressive tariff cuts esp. in new circles. RCOM rev/min decline is also likely to be sharper at 5p due to tariff cuts announced at the beginning of the quarter. |
| Published on Tuesday, January 05, 2010 at 11:57 AM |
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