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| Friday, February 26, 2010 |
| Likely 3G Bids by Indian Operators |
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3G auctions in April; notices inviting bids just before the budget speech. Government plans [not firm] to complete 3G auctions by mid-April; three slots in 17 circles and four slots in five circles to be auctioned. We do not rule out further delays in 3G spectrum auctions.
How are the Bids Likely to be - We expect Bharti and Vodafone to bid for pan India 3G auctions; Tata Teleservices, Reliance Communications and Idea Cellular should be selective. MTS, Uninor, Datacom and Aircel are unlikely to be aggressive and may attempt selective participation in key urban centres. Given the fragmentation of the Indian wireless space, we do not expect entry of new foreign players via the 3G auction route.
Restricting three slots for 3G spectrum will allow 3G winners to provide differentiated data services in a voice-centric market. While the entire controversy on the spectrum availability of 3G spectrum suggests that incremental 3G slots are unlikely before the next 12-18 months, release of additional 3G spectrum may disrupt the early mover advantage of initial winners. |
Published on Friday, February 26, 2010 at 9:01 PM  |
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| Tuesday, February 09, 2010 |
| Protect Revenue Market Share - Airtel |
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Bharti Airtel in a conference call has said that protecting revenue share leadership and driving further cost efficiencies remain the wireless segment strategy. The company manages revenue market share at a district level across 600+ districts in the country.
The company believes that it can protect its revenue market share leadership despite the advent of new competition. It also expressed confidence on maintaining wireless EBITDA margins at 30%+ over the medium to long term.
The company expects another quarter or two of intense price competition in the market. The management believes that the new operators will face a reality check over the coming quarters and drive consolidation in the industry.
the company expressed disappointment at the further deferral of the proposed 3G auctions, and the company will continue to grow its non-wireless businesses with a return ratio protection philosophy. |
| Published on Tuesday, February 09, 2010 at 2:23 PM |
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| Monday, February 08, 2010 |
| Vodafone 50% of subs have migrated to new tariffs |
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Vodafone Essar's growth becomes more impressive when seen in the context of its revenue breakup. The three metro circles, where traffic is less seasonal, contribute 26% to Vodafone's revenues vs. 17% for Bharti and 10% for Idea, which implies Vodafone-Essar may have gained the least from the seasonal uptick in 3Q. Management claims 50% of subs have migrated to new tariffs, rising by 3% per week.
Vodafone India's ARPU is Rs 230 while ARPM is Rs 0.66 [the highest in industry] and average MoU / month is just 318.
Revenue contribution from circles of DoCoMo's initial launch in June-2009 (AP, Karnataka, Kerala, Orissa, and TN) for Bharti was 36% in 2QFY10 vs. 25% for Vodafone and 27% for Idea. These five circles contributed 65% of Tata DoCoMo's sub adds during July-October 2009, thus potentially impacting Bharti's traffic more than Idea/Vodafone. However, this difference would normalise with DoCoMo's subsequent entry in other circles too. |
| Published on Monday, February 08, 2010 at 12:00 PM |
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